It’s been a rough couple of years for renters in the DFW area, but according to recent studies, a market dip is on its way. The rental market’s slow season is starting as winter approaches with the national index falling 1% in November, the third month in a row to see a decline in rents and the largest single-month dip since 2017, according to Apartment List

Yet, the online marketplace for apartment listings stated in a report that although the recent market cooldown is consistent with the seasonal trend, the magnitude can’t be explained by seasonality alone.

The report by Apartment List found that the year-over-year growth of the rental market has been decelerating rapidly since the beginning of the year and getting closer to pre-pandemic levels. From January to November, rents were up 4.7% nationally, still higher than the rates of 2018 and 2019, but far closer than the 18% spike we saw this time last year.  

One of the reasons the report found for this cooldown is unit availability. A previous study by Apartment List attributed the 2021 rent boom to more people competing for fewer vacant units with the vacancy rate falling to 4.1% in October 2021 from 7.2% in early 2020, when many people moved back with family or roommates. 

Currently, the DFW rental market has a vacancy rate of 7.6% according to a recent study by ApartmentData. The study found that in the last 12 months 21,032 new units were added to the market and 18,997 more units are under construction. The report also calculated the average renting prince for an 881-square-foot unit sits at $1,497, the second highest of the state’s four biggest metro areas, topped only by Austin’s average rent price of $1,632, followed by Houston’s $1,250 and San Antonio’s $1,209.

With an occupancy rate slowly but surely declining and the seasonal trend approaching it is likely we’ll see a decline in the upcoming months.